The Political High Season

The consensus is hardening that the Democrats will sweep the November election, winning at least the House and possibly the Senate. I still have my doubts, driven in part by a front page story in today's New York Times that pointed out that the Democrats Have Intensity, But G.O.P. Has Machine. I vividly recall how shocked many liberals were in November 2004 when President Bush posted a two million vote margin of victory, largely because of the overwhelmingly Republican ex-urban vote. Are we in for another rude surprise?

Turnout is the key to every election. Recall that the U.S. has one of the lowest voter participation rates among industrialized nations, and non-presidential election year turnouts are lower than years divisible by four. Moreover, it is largely poor and lower-middle class people who don't vote.

Those who do tend to be brought to the polls by issues or political machines. As today's article points out, the Republicans still have more resources to pour into turnout operations. The pro-Democrat Moveon.org operation is targeting the already convinced. The AFL-CIO and other unions can only target their own members, who already turn out at a higher rate and more reliably Democrat than their non-union colleagues. During the Democratic primary here in Maryland, I got hit up three times on election day to make sure I voted. I have zero confidence that the Democratic Party under Howard Dean's leadership has built a solid turnout operation, or that it is aimed at the precincts that really need it.

But there's still the issues, right? So what issues might motivate traditionally Democratic lower-middle class voters to come to the polls this year? The failure of Congress to enact a higher minimum wage, there's one. How about the 46 million people without health insurance. Or the growing insecurity of aging working class boomers who are staring at a retirement without savings or pensions. Heard anything about any of these issues lately? I saw more issues in one movie trailer for the remake of "All the King's Men" that I've seen in the endless stream of political ads on my television this fall.

Sure, lower middle class folks are like the rest of America in their concern that the war in Iraq is going badly and realize they've been lied to by Bush and his coterie. (The best article on that subject today was in the Washington Post by Rep. John Murtha, the Pennsylvania Democrat and 37-year Marine veteran who has become the conscience of the nation on this war.) But is disaffection from a failed foreign policy enough to bring people who don't usually vote to the polls?

Let's hope so.