Paul Krugman's column in today's New York Times and Eugene Robinson's column in the Washington Post justifiably attack Rudy Giuliani's misuse of prostate cancer stats, all but accusing him of lying. Krugman begs political reporters to make the Republicans' false attacks on Democratic health care plans as "socialized medicine" as big an issue as Clinton's laugh or Edwards' hair.
That's fine as far as it goes.
But here's his paragraph debunking the claim that the U.S. has much better prostate cancer survival rates than Great Britain:
You see, the actual survival rate in Britain is 74.4 percent. That still looks a bit lower than the U.S. rate (82 percent), but the difference turns out to be mainly a statistical illusion. The details are technical, but the bottom line is that a man’s chance of dying from prostate cancer is about the same in Britain as it is in America.
How hard would it have been in a column of 650 words to use 50 of those words to explain that thousands of American men are incorrectly diagnosed with prostate cancer each year. The prostate specific antigen (PSA) test has a very high false positive rate, identifying "tumors" that will never threaten patients' lives or well-being. Moreover, to "survive" that non-cancer, they are subjected to needless treatments -- costly operations, drugs, and/or radiation -- that leaves many of them impotent and incontinent.
Robinson misses this entirely. After attacking Giuliani for misrepresenting the statistics, he concludes that he prefers the American system of massive screening because "if I'm going to be hit by a freight train, I want to see it coming."
Americans need to hear the message that many aspects of our vaunted "best health care system in the world" are wasteful when not downright harmful. And for men over a certain age -- about 70 -- they would be better off if they adopted a "watchful waiting" strategy if diagnosed with prostate cancer rather than letting their specialist docs operate, chemically castrate or radiate.
This would be a perfect example for another column that takes on "consumer directed" healthcare. It could start by begging readers to bear with him as he explains the technical reasons why the U.S. prostate cancer survival rate is slightly higher than the British rate, and what that means for American patients.
The columnist could use the "complexity" of this one example to show why forcing "consumers" to understand all this on every medical situation they may face is a completely unrealistic approach to holding down health care costs. What we need is an unbiased comparative effectiveness institute like the one proposed by most Democratic candidates to generate these analyses, and then pay primary care doctors enough money to help their patients understand these choices.
Instead, what we have is fee-for-service medicine where the specialist doctors who operate, chemically castrate and radiate make the big bucks; many men needlessly suffer; and our health care outcomes in terms of survival are no better than Great Britain, where they spend 41 percent of what we do on health.
Posted by gooznews at November 2, 2007 06:00 AMWhile I agree with your concerns about massive screening and false positives, I completely disagree with your conclusion -- that having a distant committee of bureaucrats and academics deciding appropriateness is the way to address it.
We have been doing that for years with third-party payers making "medical necessity" decisions and having a financial incentive to deny coverage. It hasn't worked. And it won't work any better if you inject politicians into the process.
Far better to let the end-using consumer control the money and make his own decision about the best use of those funds. They won't be so eager to embrace these invasive procedures, and they will want to know about less costly alternatives.
Greg Scandlen
Consumers for Health Care Choices
I fully agree that Rudy (and his friends with the usual faith-based "science") should be skewered.
But I am wondering about some of the assertions about PSA-testing and its consequences. I know many men have biopsies (no picnic) and a high percentage are apparently "false postives." (You have to say "apparently" because biopsies can "miss" and end up being false negatives.) But are there really specialists who "operate, chemically castrate, or radiate" based on PSA alone, with no confirming biopsy?
(Even if one has the latter, there are further considerations re: what to do, if anything. Just wanting to be sure we're all on same essential page.)
Posted by: Hank at November 3, 2007 11:23 AMProstate cancer screening could indeed be a poster child for (among other many other troubling things) the problem with our national obsession with technology in medicine, as well as an example of how popular mythology ("how could it be anything but terrific to find cancer early?!") is not only terribly misleading, but can also lead to real harm. It can also provide a wonderful model for the concept of "shared decision making" between (well-informed) doctors and patients. But while I agree that members of the public can (must) be taught about this, I'm far less sanguine that it can be done in 650 words. For anyone interested in truly learning about this particular medical issue, and its many complexities -- it requires perhaps a half hour or so, rather than either the 5 minutes it takes to read an op-ed, or 4 years of medical school -- I would refer you to the patient (and physician) education project being led by Professor Michael Wilkes, at UC Davis Medical School.
One further comment -- I strongly agree with your proposed effectiveness institute (similar to something Shannon Brownlee suggests at the end of her excellent new book, "Overtreated ..."), and encourage readers to resist the reflex visceral reaction that is intended to be aroused as soon as the specter of (federal) 'bureaucracy' is raised. Of course federal appointees can do a terrible job (look at just about any of our current healthcare agencies) -- but they COULD also do an excellent one. Simply creating an institute, and then allowing it to function as the servant of proprietary interests, or overarching political philosophy -- rather than on behalf of science and the public health -- is indeed a recipe for disaster. But that surely doesn't mean that the concept itself is inevitably flawed, or that -- in its best iteration -- it isn't something we should work for.
Posted by: JR Hoffman at November 3, 2007 11:52 AMThe term "false positive" is somewhat misleading here. Cancer comes in many forms, which you can categorize as birds, bears, and turtles according to how fast they grow and how likely they are to metastasize, or spread throughout the body. Birds are fast growing tumors and highly likely to metastasize. Bears are slower growing, and they may never metastasize, and might not even cause symptoms, depending upon how old the patient is when the tumor forms. The turtles are called "indolent" tumors; they're so slow growing they probably would never cause a single symptom even if they were never detected and treated.
Many prostate cancers are turtles or bears. The problem is, even a biopsy isn't very good at distinguishing between the different types of prostate cancer, so once any kind of cancer is detected, most physicians and patients want to surgically remove it.
That wouldn't be a problem is the treatment were benign, but it isn't. Prostate surgery is a big deal, and it leaves a significant number of men incontinent, impotent, or both -- which is why we should all be investing in Depends and Viagra stock.
This has two consequences for the current political discussion. One, in the U.S. we know with absolute certainty we're overtreating huge numbers of men for cancers that would never have bothered them in their lifetimes. And we're doing it becuase we screen for prostate cancer using the PSA test. We think that catching cancer early is a good thing, but in this case, we're catching a whole lot of cancers that don't need to be treated -- and then we're treating the daylights out of them with surgery that has a major impact on men's lives.
Two, when we compare five year mortality rates in the U.S. and the U.K., their five-year mortality rate is automatically going to be worse because they don't screen for prostate cancer nearly as much as we do. that means that men who come in to be treated for prostate cancer actually have a cancer that is symptomatic.
One way or another, either Rudy Giuliani's medical consultants don't understand how screening and mortality statistics work, or they are deliberately lying to score political points.
Posted by: Shannon Brownlee at November 3, 2007 11:52 AMOne screening that is grossly under-utilized is colorectal cancer screening.
Screening has increased in people who have insurance, but not in un- or under-insured. Congress is considering a couple of programs that would increase screening in these areas.
My 2 cents: Get your butt screened. Push researchers to improve screening techniques for prostate and lung cancer.
www.CoverYourButt.org
I am assuming Shannon's book, and other studies, have the relevant big numbers. We all know a zillion anecdotes. Two friends of mine recently had relatively low PSAs, both in absolute number (under 4 in one instance; under 2 in the other) and also relatively low velocity and nothing on DRE, who had urologists whose "instinct" was to biopsy. In both instances, they turned out to have the fast-growing, "bird" tumors. No extant guidelines, as far as I know, would have suggested biopsy under their circumstances. So they were the "lucky outliers," as it turned out.
But anecdotes are mostly (but not entirely) beside the point. It does seem we are agreed that no one operates based on PSA alone; that biopsy results (including Gleasons) are rarely without ambiguity); that developing reliable guidelines is enormously complex, both in general and for particular pts.
Posted by: Hank at November 4, 2007 12:23 PM