Women And Workers Shifted to Hillary

John Judis of The New Republic yesterday posted a convincing analysis that suggests my "it's the economy" stupid explanation for Sen. Hillary Clinton's come-from-behind win last Tuesday was not the most significant factor. He's one of the most astute observers of American politics because of his skill in analyzing polls, and firmly rejects the thesis that working class voters (those with less than a college education) are racist, which had been suggested in this op-ed by Andrew Kohut in Friday's New York Times.

In short, Judis shows that there was a huge shift among educated women voters in the last few days of the election. There was also a smaller but distinct shift to Clinton among well-educated male voters. And among both groups, Sen. Barack Obama's support dropped. Among college educated women, the shift was a full 12 percentage points from one to the other -- about the same as the swing in the pre-election poll to the actual results.

Among voters with only a high school education, Obama actually gained a percentage point from pre-election polls to the final results. Clinton gained five points. Obama wasn't the victim of racism. He just didn't benefit as much as Clinton from the rush away from John Edwards, who in the final hours of the race saw his support plummet. Indeed, the combined vote in every educational category for Clinton and Obama was five to nine percentage points greater in the actual polls than it was in the pre-election polls. Hillary got most of those votes. I stick with my view expressed Friday that "it's the economy, stupid" will be the watchword of this year's campaign, and that will benefit Clinton the most of all the candidates in the race.

That said, the energy and enthusiasm that Obama's legions have brought to the race will need to be translated to her campaign if the Democrats are to win in November. Given the consultants, pollsters, party insiders and centrist thinkers who dominate her camp, that's going to be one tough transplant operation if she gets the nomination.